Hot search trends and key points in the refrigerant industry (as of April 2025)

1. Industry turning point and quota system under policy drive
China's HFCs quota officially implemented: The total production quota of the third-generation refrigerant (HFCs) released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2024 is 746,000 tons, with the core varieties R32, R125, and R134a accounting for 83% of the total. The industry concentration has significantly increased, with CR3 reaching 75%-91%, and the supply and demand structure tends to be tight.
Cold chain logistics upgrade demand: The expansion of the global food cold chain scale promotes the improvement of refrigerant energy efficiency requirements, and the popularity of CO₂ transcritical systems in large cold storage facilities increases, driving the growth of the supporting equipment market.
It is expected that the total quota will be further reduced in 2025, and some varieties such as R32 and R134a may face a domestic demand gap.

The U.S. ban on high GWP refrigerants takes effect: Starting in 2025, the U.S. will ban the import or manufacture of automotive air conditioning refrigerants with a GWP value higher than 150 (such as R134a). Chinese exporting automakers face technical substitution pressure and need to accelerate the shift to environmentally friendly refrigerants such as R1234yf, R744 (CO2).

2.Technological Innovation and Environmental Replacement Trend
Haier's refrigerant conversion technology leads the industry: Haier's variable 分流 refrigerant air conditioner, by adjusting the refrigerant flow path design, achieves a 50% increase in cooling speed and 12% energy saving, winning the "Energy-saving and Emission-reduction Science and Technology Progress Award" and regarded as the third technological revolution in the air conditioning industry.

Hot pump technology integration breakthrough: The "High-quality Development Action Plan for the Heat Pump Industry" released by the National Development and Reform Commission proposes to focus on the research and development of transcritical CO₂ heat pumps and high-power high-temperature heat pumps, promoting the application of heat pumps in the fields of buildings and industries.

The market of natural refrigerants is rising: ammonia (R717), CO₂ (R744), and hydrocarbons (such as R290) are increasing their penetration in the cold chain, commercial refrigeration, and other fields due to their zero ODP and low GWP characteristics. It is expected that the market share of natural refrigerants will exceed 15% by 2025.
Market supply and competition structure

The demand for new energy vehicles is growing: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeds 30%, and the demand for specialized refrigerants for electric vehicles (such as PGW, EGW) is surging, with the market size expected to reach 67 billion yuan by 2025.

3.Global refrigerant replacement accelerates: The EU and China are gradually phasing out HFCs, HFOs (such as R1234yf), and natural refrigerants are becoming mainstream. The market size of HFO1234yf in China is expected to reach 50,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 6%.

Corporate competition strategy differentiation: Large companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. dominate the market with high quota ratios (such as Juhua's R32 quota accounting for 29% of the national total), while small and medium-sized manufacturers shift to specialized fields such as technical services and recycling business.

4. International dynamics and risk alerts
Developing country market potential: Countries such as India and Southeast Asia, which have not frozen HFCs consumption, may become "safe havens" for traditional refrigerants, but they still face the pressure of reducing emissions under the Kigali Amendment in the long term.

Technical substitution risk: Fourth-generation refrigerants (such as HFOs) are expensive and have strong patent barriers, and enterprises need to balance short-term profits and long-term technical investment.

5. Investment and Industry Outlook
Green technology becomes an investment hotspot: research and development of low GWP refrigerants (such as biobased refrigerants), integrated heat pump systems, and carbon capture technology receive policy and financial support. It is expected that the investment growth rate in related fields will exceed 20% from 2025 to 2030.

Summary: The refrigerant industry is in a triple transformation period of policy, technology, and market, with environmental substitution and energy efficiency upgrade as the core theme. Enterprises need to pay attention to international regulatory trends, accelerate technological transformation, and at the same time seize the opportunities of incremental markets such as new energy vehicles and cold chain logistics.